Modeling the current distribution of Pouteria decorticans (Sapotaceae) in the Amazon Basin

Abstract

Pouteria decorticans is an Amazonian canopy tree whose distribution, ecological amplitude, and environmental drivers remain poorly known due to sparse and uneven botanical sampling across the basin. Here, we compile and validate all available occurrence records and use an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) framework to estimate the species’ potential distribution and identify key climatic predictors shaping its range. After rigorous data curation, 94 records were retained and modeled using three algorithms (GAM, MaxEnt, and Random Forest), all of which showed high predictive performance (AUC = 0.89–0.91; TSS = 0.70–0.73). Five variables—annual precipitation, elevation, solar radiation, wind speed, and precipitation seasonality—contributed most strongly to model performance, reflecting the species’ association with moist, well-drained non-flooded terra-firme forests. Suitability maps indicate broad environmentally favorable areas across northern and northeastern Amazonia, including the Guianas, Amapá, and the Negro Basin, alongside extensive undersampled but highly suitable regions in remote interfluvial zones. These findings suggest that P. decorticans is not ecologically restricted, but rather under-collected, and that its perceived rarity is largely an artifact of sampling bias. Our results provide a refined understanding of the species’ ecological niche, highlight priority areas for future botanical exploration, and offer a robust spatial framework to support taxonomic and conservation assessments of Neotropical Sapotaceae.

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